Don't Mess With The Metro

I’m here for two things: drop hot takes and chew bubble gum.

And I am all out of bubble gum.

You see, trying to argue a point is no fun without an “outrageous” statement sometimes, and that’s why I am here to state and defend why the Carolina Hurricanes make a legitimate case for having a better top 4 than the New York Rangers.

I know what you’re thinking to yourself, “this guy hates Rick Nash and Anthony DeAngelo, how can this make sense?” Well put down your vogue magazine and x out of that BuzzFeed “Which Cat Am I” quiz so I can drop some knowledge on ya.

Let’s quickly recap this offseason. The Rangers defense had wider holes than a $5 stripper, or the equivalent of Bryzgalov’s 5 hole. Dan Girardi and Marc Staal combined to make ~15% of the cap. Ryan McDonagh couldn’t showcase his skills properly when tied down to an anchor, Kevin Klein, well, disappeared pretty much. Brady Skjei was elite when his coach decided the prank to glue his breezers to the bench, and Nick Holden couldn’t stop a nose bleed with a mile long piece of toilet paper. The Hurricanes weren’t all too bad, their goalie was just named Eddie Lack or Cam Ward. Their top 4 was good, but it’s their drafting and upgrades that worked well.

Now, the Hurricanes are sitting pretty with Noah Hanifin, Justin Faulk (not Falk), Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Klas Dahlbeck. Not to mention, a kid named Haydn Fleury playing in Charlotte. Those 7 right there, if played properly, could be devastating for the top offenses not only in the Metro, but in the league (*Disclaimer: top offenses do not include the New Jersey Devils).

Onto the Rangers: Dan Girardi is gone. Bought out and shipped to Tampa (technically). Either way you want to look at it, the Rangers don’t have to pay him much, and quite frankly many fans would rather pay him to play elsewhere than see him on the ice. Kevin Klein retired and took his 2.9M AAV cap hit off the books. Marc Staal is still a thing, so is Nick Holden’s defense, but Brendan Smith returned after the trade last season. Brady Skjei still exists and coveted Free Agent Kevin Shattenkirk came home to play with his childhood favorite team. It’s a new look for the Rangers, but how do we evaluate this?

Let’s set up the top 4 as:

McDonagh-Shattenkirk vs. Hanifin-Faulk

Skjei-Smith Slavin-Pesce

And we will argue each team’s #1 through 4.

*NOTE: ALL EVALUATIONS ARE DONE FROM LAST SEASON ONLY!!!

First matchup: Ryan McDonagh vs. Noah Hanifin

Now I know the Rangers fan in me wants to say that McDonagh has a clear cut victory, but when we dig deeper, it’s not as clear cut as you’d think. You can make the case that McDonagh was held back by his partners throughout the years, which is entirely true, but you could say that Hanifin’s stats are a product of him playing in Carolina. But when you look at the numbers, take into account that Hanifin was a 2nd year player last year and McDonagh was an established veteran. While McDonagh blew Hanafin out of the water in the points category, (for you fancy stats nerds) Hanifin was ~4 points higher in the CF%, not to mention that Hanifin saw an average of ~5:30 less of ice time per game (take that as you will). When looking at numbers on a similar scale to playing time, Hanifin ranks very comparable to McDonagh. Yet, after deliberating for a while, McDonagh’s experience being paired with bad players and still being able to produce edges out the Hanafin argument

Advantage: McDonagh (barely).

(And no, it’s not because Hanifin went to Backup Colleg-, oops, I mean Barely Cathol-, just… nvm)

Second matchup: Kevin Shattenkirk vs. Justin Faulk

One of these guys is almost a household name, the other is Justin Faulk. Both guys though, don’t get enough credit for what they do on the ice. Shattenkirk was traded at the deadline from St. Louis to Washington and then paired with Bruce Orpik; an offensive stud d-man paired with holes so wide defensively he makes a porn star look like a saint. Fancy stats-wise, these guys were nearly identical, except Shatty takes the cake in the Fenwick department by ~4.5%. Points-wise, Shatty had 56 in 80 while Faulk had 37 in 75. On the back end though, you’d think Shattenkirk was worse, but his shot suppression was >95th percentile, while Faulk sat somewhere in the average. Though, Faulk made up for that in shot generation, where he ranked >99th percentile and Shattenkirk was >~57th percentile. So, after evaluating them both, I gave this one to Faulk, again. Not by much.

Advantage: Faulk (barely).

Third matchup: Brady Skjei vs. Jaccob Slavin

Brady’s breakout season had Rangers fans screaming “SOMEBODY SKJEI HEYYYY WE WANT SOME HOCKKKAYYYYY!” (well not actually, and I kinda came up with that on the spot. 2.3/10) but I believe everyone is sleeping on Slavin. Both are 22 years old. Both were in their second season last year. Both played 80+ games. Slavin: 5-29-34 in 82. Skjei: 5-34-39 in 80. Skjei ice time: below average. Slavin ice time: above average. Slavin edges out Skjei in CF% and FF%, but not by more than 2%. What separates Skjei and Slavin is not shot suppression, which is in a similar range (Brady takes that one), or shot generation (Slavin takes that one by a larger margin). It’s 5v5 Goals and First Assist per hour, where Skjei ranks in the >95th percentile and at the top of the league in assists, where Slavin is right around average for both. Because of this, I have to give Skjei the advantage, again, not by much.

Advantage: Skjei (barely).

Fourth matchup: Brendan Smith vs. Brett Pesce

This to me, believe it or not, was the most interesting matchup overall. Smith went 3-6-9 (*holds back screaming “DAMN SHE FINE!”*) in 51 games, Pesce went 2-18-20 in 82. Pesce won the battle of CF/FF% by a decent amount, but you’d think on pace, Smith would be close. If he played all 82, he was on pace for ~5-10-15. Then we look at the hero charts… I’ll let this do the explaining.

This is what I mean by an “interesting case”, they have similar numbers in some areas, but cancel each other out in other aspects. The only reason why I give this to Pesce is because of durability last season and offensive production, even though Smith is better defensively it can’t overcome what Pesce brings overall.

Advantage: Pesce (again, barely).

Now you see my case. I tried to incorporate those fancy stats I’m not a huge fan of, but I figured might as well try to learn them. So if you had to pick a top 4 to declare as better, who would you take? Heading into next season, I’d say Rangers simply because of experience, but if you give it over the next 2 seasons, or overall defensively (including 3rd pair and 7th dmen), I’d say the Canes take it. It all depends what you look at defensively. Let me know what you think.

Aaaaand for shits and giggles, let’s do third pair guys real quick:

Fifth matchup: Nick Holden vs. Trevor van Riemsdyk

Holden can only play offense. TvR can do it all better than Holden. This one is easy.

Advantage: TvR.

Sixth matchup: Marc Staal/Anthony Deangelo vs. Klas Dahlbeck/Haydn Fleury

I’d take either of their corpses over Staal. Plus Dahlbeck and Fleury know how to stay out of the box. Easy.

Advantage: Any D-Man in the Hurricanes system over the NYR two.

Follow Dan on Twitter: @Hayes_Hair13